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Six years of first-frost data

Mulberry leaf

DoelingI started to write that our first frost was late this year. Then I went back to look at the six years I've been keeping track:

2011 - 10/3
2012 - 11/3
2013 - 10/21
2014 - 10/31
2015 - 10/17
2016 - 10/23

Hmmm, looks like this frost is right on schedule. No more figs or peppers, but no more summer weeds either. Time to light a fire in the woodstove and relax into fall.

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I find the jump from 2011 & 2012's date to 2013's date to be fascinating. It appears as thought from 2012 to 2013 there was a jump of 18 days (from 10/3 to 10/21) and then the earliest date since then was only 10/17.

I've been saying for the 18 years that I've lived in this area that the season are migrating with warmer weather pushing into late October and November, and warmer weather expanding in the "spring" into early March and February.

Fascinating all of this, no?

Comment by Nayan Mon Oct 24 09:48:02 2016
Your series of only 6 yrs is too short to have much meaning. There are 11, 22 and 60 yr, and longer cycles in the temp record. Weather/climate follows the math of chaos with strange attractors, so it kinda always "averages out." Pay attention to the "record highs & lows for this date" on the daily newscasts: it's amazing how often the two record temps occur within a few yrs of each other. We can only be sure that next January will be cold and next July will be hot (maybe).
Comment by doc Wed Oct 26 07:53:48 2016

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